Massive cyclonic storm Biparjoy will further delay monsoon to Goa & Mumbai?

PANAJI: Weather experts have warned that a severe Mumbai storm christened “Biparjoy” will further delay the monsoon in almost all of South and Western India, including Mumbai and Goa. The expected date of the monsoon in Kerala is now said to be June 8, while the monsoon is not expected in Goa before June 10-12. In Mumbai the monsoon is expected by June 15-16 about six days beyond the scheduled date.

According to media reports in 2019, it was cyclone Vayu. In 2020, cyclone Nisarga. And in 2021, cyclone Tauktae. The latter caused substantial damage in Goa, uprooting over 200 century-old trees and damaging houses, including the Fatorda stadium, which saw parts of its roof blown away. In all these years, these powerful cyclones that formed and ravaged over the Arabian Sea weakened the southwest monsoon showers over Kerala in June causing a delay in the monsoons.

This time, it is cyclonic storm Biparjoy (pronounced ‘Biporjoy’). The Indian Meteorological Department, in its late evening bulletin on Tuesday, confirmed the formation of the cyclone and predicted it’s effects could be felt over land and sea beginning from June 7.

The deep depression over the southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea moved nearly northwards with a speed of 4 kmph during the last six hours, and according to the IMD bulletin, has “intensified into a cyclonic storm “Biparjoy”.” It was in its 8.30 pm bulletin that the IMD first used the name ‘Biparjoy’ and said the system was moving northwards. Late on Tuesday, the weather system was stationary for nearly nine hours, but is now moving away from the coasts of Karnataka and Goa.

The cyclone now (as of 8.30 pm on Tuesday) lies about 920 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,050 km southwest of Mumbai, and approximately 1,500 km west-northwest of Kerala. Weather experts say the cyclone, because of its extremely low pressure, could draw the moisture-laden south-westerlies away from the Kerala coast and further delay the onset of the monsoon.

The IMD bulletin said that the cyclone was likely to move northwards and intensify gradually into a very severe cyclonic storm over the east-central Arabian Sea, with a maximum sustained surface wind speed of 105-115 gusting to 140 km per hour, in the next two days. According to the IMD, the cyclone is likely to persist till June 11. The time and location of it’s expected landfall is not yet known.

In a further warning the weatherman said on June 7, the sea condition is likely to be “high to very high” over the east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining west-central and southeast Arabian. “Sea condition is likely to be rough to very rough over south Arabian Sea, along and off north Kerala-Karnataka-Goa coasts, Lakshadweep-Maldives areas,” the bulletin said, warning everyone to stay out of the waters.

On June 8, the sea condition is likely to be “very high to phenomenal” over the central Arabian Sea and adjoining south Arabian and it is likely to become “phenomenal” from the evening of June 8 over the same region. However, by this time it would have moved away from the Kerala coast. As the system is likely to suck out all the moisture in the skies, the monsoon system is likely to be weakened for the next one week to ten days.

UPDATE: Wed, 10.05 AM:On Wednesday morning, the India Meteorological Department said cyclone Biparjoy, which is expected to develop into a severe cyclonic storm in the next two days, will make landfall in Pakistan around June 11 or 12 as it moves away from the western coast of India.