Third wave fuelled by Omicron likely to hit Goa, Maharashtra by Jan-Feb 2022

MUMBAI: Experts have predicted that the Third Covid Wave, fuelled by the Omicron variant is likely to hit Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra in the first quarter of 2022 most probably by January end.

Cases will start increasing daily from January-end or even by mid-January onwards and by mid-February, the three states could have a sizeable number of Covid infections, said Dr Pranav Kabra of the Raksha Multispeciality Hospital in suburban Mumbai.

The Omicron variant of COVID-19 has put governments across the world on high alert. The more transmissible new variant has forced a reanalysis of the current predictions of the pandemic.

The Sutra mathematical model for COVID-19, developed by IIT Kanpur and backed by the Indian government, has concluded that a third wave of COVID-19 is likely to hit India early next year between January and February 2022. Professor Manindra Agrawal, who heads the project, revealed on Saturday, December 4.

In a Twitter thread where Agrawal revealed the findings of the Sutra model and the insights that emerged with it, Prof Agrawal explained that a third wave due to the newfound Omicron variant will peak early next year. However, the wave is likely to be milder as the new variant of concern isn’t appearing to bypass the natural COVID-19 immunity in individuals in any significant way, said Prof Agrawal, contrary to recent research in South Africa.

Noting that the new variant isn’t developing severe infections across the world, he asserted that the third wave is likely to be mild as per what the Omicron data thus far seems to suggest. However, with its increased transmissibility it cannot be ignored.

Prof Agrawal further said that while a third wave is a certainty, its scale and impact will hinge on how it is tackled by the government. He listed mild lockdown measures like night curfew, crowd restrictions as likely enough to limit the spread of the virus and diminishing the peak.

In their study, the team at IIT-K plotted three scenarios based on the efficacy of vaccine immunity against the new variant. The findings suggested a “mild third wave, with peak between 100-150K infections per day occurring sometime in Feb,” Prof Agrawal shared. He further said that the hospitalization load is even lower as per the mathematical model with indications that Omicron cases are mostly mild. He did, however, say that more data is awaited to be sure of this.

It is to be noted that the time predicted is also polling time in India with a number of states – Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa – slated to conduct Assembly Elections during the predicted time. (Agencies)