Covid third wave likely in Goa and Maharashtra in next two months: Dr Pranav Kabra

MUMBAI: Echoing the views of Maha health minister Rajesh Tope, Dr Pranav Kabra of the Raksha Multispeciality Hospital in suburban Mumbai, today said a third wave is definitely expected in Goa and Maharashtra, either in December-end this year or in January next year.

“Luckily, we have not yet seen a new variant and the Delta plus variant has been controlled and tamed. However, this does not mean there won’t be another variant. Maybe Covid-19 would become endemic, but we can’t say for sure for at least one more year,” Dr Kabra opined, adding that till then the only option is to mask up and take precautions.

New variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are detected every week, but very few become VoI or variants of interest and still fewer variants are classified as variants of concern (VOC). For example, the Delta variant of the coronavirus, first detected in Maharashtra,  was classified as a Variant of Concern only 5-6 months after it was first detected in November 2020. Had it to be classified much earlier, within weeks of being first identified, the second wave in Maharashtra and the rest of India would have been less severe, Kabra stated.

As Maharashtra and Goa are closely connected, with the inter-mingling of lakhs of people in Goa, from different states, as well as from abroad, during the December festive season and New Year, the chances of a third wave are very likely in Goa and Maharashtra in the month of January, Dr Kabra claimed.

While Tope claimed that Oxygen and ICU beds will not be required during the third wave, Dr Kabra said that the third wave possibly could be as severe as the second wave, if a new variant emerges.

This morning, the health minister Rajesh Tope said that the third wave of Covid-19 is likely to hit Maharashtra in December this year but it will be mild,

“As per the prediction of epidemiologists, waves come periodically in a given frequency. The first wave came in September 2020. The second wave came in April 2021. Now, third wave is anticipated in December,” he said.

However, Tope said the rate of vaccination in the state had been high and that is why the wave is likely to be mild.

“Over 80 per cent people have been vaccinated in Maharashtra. Vaccination has played a major role in containing the spread of Covid-19. Infection is less, and the mortality is near zero. Lot of immunity antibody is developed in students and youngsters. Though the third wave is expected in December, vaccination that has been done will ensure that infection will be very mild and requirement of ICU and oxygen will be low,” he said.

Maharashtra’s mortality rate is one of the highest in the country at 2.12 per cent. There are 9,678 active cases in the state at present but the daily new cases have come down substantially, Tope said.