BENGALURU, (PTI): With the Election Commission announcing the schedule for Assembly polls in Karnataka, it remains to be seen whether the ruling BJP will buck a four-decade old trend to script history or if the Congress upstages its saffron rival to up its stakes as a challenger ahead of the 2024 parliamentary polls.

No political party has won a successive mandate in the state since 1985 and the BJP is eager to rewrite this bit of history and retain its southern citadel. The Congress is keen to wrest power to give the party a much-needed elbow room to position itself as the main opposition player in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Also what needs to be watched out for is, whether former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular), will emerge as a ”Kingmaker” by holding the key to government formation, in the event of a hung verdict, as it has done in the past.

The Congress and JD(S) have announced their first list of candidates for 124 and 93 seats, respectively. Like the last two decades, Karnataka will face a three cornered contest in the May 10 elections, with a direct fight between the Congress, BJP and JD(S) on the cards in most segments.

While Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is also making efforts to make some inroads, other smaller ones like mining baron Janardhana Reddy’s Kalyana Rajya Pragathi Paksha (KRPP), the Left, BSP, SDPI (the political wing of banned PFI) and Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) will be contesting in a select few constituencies.

Political observers feel anti-incumbency seems to be a key factor in Karnataka polls, as voters have not given any party a successive mandate. It last happened in 1985, when the Ramakrishna Hegde-led Janata Party came back to power.

While Congress’ vote base is spread evenly across the state, the BJP’s is pronounced in the north and central regions due to the concentration of Veerashaiva-Lingayat community in the belt, which forms its major vote bank. JD(S) dominates the Vokkaliga bastion of Old Mysuru (southern Karnataka) region. Of Karnataka’s population, Lingayats constitute about 17 per cent, Vokkaligas 15 per cent, OBCs 35 per cent, SC/STs 18 per cent, Muslims about 12.92 per cent and Brahmins about three per cent.

The BJP has set a target of winning at least 150 seats to ensure absolute majority. It wants to avoid a 2018-like situation, when it had initially lost out on forming government despite emerging as the single largest party, and had to depend on defections of Congress and JD(S) MLAs to establish its administration later. It is making all out efforts to make inroads into the Old Mysuru region, where the party is traditionally weak. The region has 89 seats (including 28 in Bengaluru), and according to leaders, the party fell short of majority (110 in 2008 and 104 in 2018) due to its inability to win as many seats from this region.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s repeated visits and those of Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP President Nadda to the poll-bound State has no doubt given the party a leg-up in campaigning, but it is up against a combative Congress which has sought to make corruption a central theme of the political narrative.

What also matters to the BJP is how it manages disgruntlement after ticket distribution and navigates between the party old guard or ”natives” and ”migrants” (those who joined from other parties and helped it form government). Amid some signs of anti incumbency, BJP is confident about its victory by projecting PM Modi’s pro-development agenda, works of the ‘double engine government’ and its populist schemes, along with the Hindutva card.

Besides, it is highlighting its efforts in providing social welfare decisions on reservation hike for SC/STs, Vokkaligas and Lingayats. Aimed at keeping its Lingayat support base intact even after BS Yediuurappa- the ‘Lingayat strong man’ quitting electoral politics, the BJP is falling back on the seasoned oarsman making him a key poll mascot, by pushing him to the top of the campaign plank. This comes amid efforts by the Congress to woo the community by projecting that the saffron party has sidelined the octogenarian leader. Lingayats are a politically dominant community and are said to be a dominant force in about 100 seats.

In the outgoing assembly, there are 54 Lingayat MLAs across parties including 37 from the ruling BJP. Among the 23 chief ministers from the state since 1952, as many as 10 have been Lingayats.

For Congress, defeating BJP will be a morale booster and a key for reviving its electoral fortunes and strengthen its credentials as the main opposition player against the saffron party ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. By ensuring a win in Karnataka, the party also wants to bounce back after the recent losses in the northeastern states and give it a momentum of sorts to take on the battle-ready election machinery of the BJP later this year in the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.

The Congress seems to be fighting the polls in Karnataka so far on the strength of its local leadership and focusing on issues concerning the State making corruption a central theme of its campaigning.

This poll is also a prestige battle for the grand old party with a Kannadiga M Mallikarjun Kharge, who hails from Kalaburagi district, at its helm as the national President. However, it also faces the challenge of keeping at bay intense factionalism, especially between the camps of its two CM aspirants Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar — who are often seen to be engaging in political one-upmanship for some time now.

Disgruntlement among senior leaders like G Parmeshwara, H K Patil, K H Muniyappa and others over being sidelined, and revolts by aspirants on not getting election tickets also worry Congress, which is confident about its prospects based on its poll guarantees, and its successful campaign against BJP’s alleged corruption.

Will the 2023 Karnataka assembly polls be a battle of political survival for former PM H D Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular), or will the regional party once again emerge as a king maker, like it did in 2018, in the event of a hung verdict. This is the debate going on in the political circles concerning JD(S).

Plagued by desertions, internal rifts, and carrying the burdern of a ”family party” tag, it remains to be seen how Gowda’s son and former Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy, who is in a way single handedly managing the JD(S)’ affairs with his aging father taking the back seat, would steer the party in the polls. Since its formation in 1999, JD(S) has never formed a government on its own, but had been in power twice in coalition with both national parties- for 20 months with BJP in 2006 and with Congress for 14 months after the May 2018 assembly polls with Kumaraswamy as the Chief Minister.

With its ambitious ”mission 123” target to form a government on its own by winning at least 123 out of total 224 seats going for polls, JD(S) has been seeking votes invoking regional Kannadiga pride and fueling a narrative that the national parties — the BJP and Congress — fall short of serving interests of the State. There are however doubts among some political observers and within a section of the party itself about JD(S) meeting this target; the party’s best ever performance so far has been in the 2004 assembly elections, when it won 58 seats, and 40 seats in 2013 came next.

In the 2018 polls, JD(S) had managed to win 37 seats. As of now, what is seen on the ground is a locally driven campaign by the Congress and JD(S). The BJP, on the other hand, has been projecting Narendra Modi’s leadership and focusing on the narrative of a ‘double engine government’ and the achievements of the centre, a political observer said. (PTI)

NEW DELHI, (ANI): Hours after the election commission announced dates for Karnataka assembly elections, Union Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pralhad Joshi on Wednesday said that Bharatiya Janata Party would form the next government in the state “with an absolute majority once again.”

“BJP is ready for Karnataka elections. The party will form the government with an absolute majority once again in the state,” Joshi told ANI.

The Election Commission of India announced the schedule for the Karnataka Assembly elections. The polling will take place in a single phase on May 10, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said on Wednesday. The counting of votes will be done on May 13, the CEC said in a press conference here.

Detailing the data of the electors, the CEC said that there are a total of 5.21 crore voters in the state and the number of 100 plus voters is 16,976. He informed that over 58,000 polling stations would be set up across the state.

“There are 224 Assembly constituencies of which 36 are reserved for the SCs and 15 for the STs. The total electorates in the state are 5,21,73,579 crores of which males are 2.62 crores and females are 2.59 crores. The total number of 80 plus electors is 12.15 lakhs. It is an increase of 32 per cent from 2018. It also includes 16,976 proud electors who are 100 plus. The number of persons with disabilities (PWDs) has increased to 5.55 lakhs. This is an increase of close to 150 per cent,” Kumar said. He said that the first-time voters have increased from 2018-19 by 9.17 lakhs in Karnataka.

“All young voters who are turning 18 years of age by April 1, will be able to vote in the Karnataka Assembly elections,” he said. The CEC also laid down the security measures for the identified sensitive booths in the state.

“There are 58,282 polling stations in Karnataka of which 20,866 are urban. The average number of electors per polling station comes to 883. On all the sensitive booths which have been identified, we take four to five measures. Either there would be CAPF, web-casting or a micro-observer. With the combination of all of these, we tend to put more vigour and vigil on the sensitive booths,” he informed. “There would be 240 model polling stations which will be made eco-friendly and green booths. 100 booths would be managed purely by persons with disability,” Kumar added explaining the measures taken by the ECI for attracting the youth to vote.

Notably, Karnataka, which has 224 seats in the Assembly currently has 119 MLAs of the ruling BJP, while Congress has 75 and its ally JD(S) has 28 seats. (ANI)

BENGALURU: With the Karnataka state polls likely to be held in the first half of May, an announcement to the effect by the Election Commission of India is expected anytime, maybe even in the next couple of days.

An enthusiastic Indian National Congress has already released its first list of candidates for 124 seats or constituencies in the State, but a cautious BJP said it will only release its list after the poll body announces the dates.

However, sources in the Congress said the party is in dire straits when it comes to funds and is desperately looking for ‘investors’. Against this backdrop, Karnataka Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai on Tuesday charged the State Congress chief DK Shivakumar of luring BJP MLAs and offering them tickets in constituencies. Sources claimed there is a catch or a secret condition though – any BJP MLA who wants to switch sides and expects a ticket, is expected to fund not just his own campaign expenses, but also support the state party fund pool with some generous contributions.

Congress leaders flatly denied this allegation and claimed the BJP was spreading falsehood as it was riding a sticky wicket. However, reliable internal sources in the State Congress unit on condition of anonymity confirmed that the party is lacking adequate funding to take on the massive might of the BJP, which is in power at the Centre, with an almost inexhaustible chest of funds.

The Congress in Karnataka is trying to lure “rich” candidates who also have a good chance of winning, as it is almost unable to fund ‘good’ but ‘poor’ candidates, claimed sources within the Karnataka unit of the party.

Speaking to reporters, the CM said, “KPCC President DK Shivakumar since the last two to three days has been making phone calls to our MLAs in 100 constituencies where they are yet to announce candidates. He is stating that if you (BJP MLAs) come (to Congress), we will give you the ticket,” Bommai alleged.

Speaking in Belagavi, he said, “Congress leaders are frustrated, they don’t have proper candidates at all, so he (Shivakumar) is calling our party people. This shows that as a matter of fact, the Congress party is bankrupt.”

Congress announced its first list of 124 candidates on March 25 and is yet to announce tickets for the balance 100 seats. Karnataka has a total of 224 assembly constituencies.

BENGALURU, (PTI): Congress legislature party leader and former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah on Saturday said he wants to contest from two seats in the upcoming Karnataka Assembly polls, as the party fielded him from his home turf of Varuna in Mysuru district.

He said he wants to contest from Kolar too along with Varuna, if the party agrees.

The Congress earlier in the day announced its first list of 124 candidates for the polls, due by May, which included the announcement of Siddaramiah’s candidacy from Varuna. This marks the return of the 75-year-old leader to his home constituency, which is currently represented by his son Yathindra Siddaramaiah, after a gap of five years.

Siddaramaiah had earlier won twice from Varuna in 2008 and 2013, and even went on to become the Chief Minister after winning from there in 2013.

The Leader of Opposition in Karnataka had zeroed in on Varuna, after weighing on various options.

”I had said, it is left for the high command to decide (regarding the constituency). High Command has asked me to contest from Varuna. I have said, I will contest from two constituencies, from Kolar and here, again it is left to the high command,” Siddaramaih said.

Speaking to reporters here, he said, his son Yathidra will not be contesting from any constituency. The Congress has not yet announced any candidate for the Kolar seat, and also Badami, which Siddaramaiah currently represents.

According to some party functionaries, Siddaramaiah, in the event of winning from both the seats, plans to vacate Varuna seat, and field Yathindra from there in the subsequent bypolls.

Siddaramaiah, who is nursing Chief Ministerial ambitions in the event party coming to power, and was looking for a ”safe seat”, had announced in January that he will be contesting the polls from the Kolar, reportedly after conducting surveys, subject to the approval of the party’s Central leadership. However, there were reports last week that Congress leadership including Rahul Gandhi, during the party’s Central Election Committee meeting, had advised Siddaramaiah not to contest from Kolar, which is said to be “risky” for him.

Following this, Siddaramaiah on Tuesday told a large group of supporters from Kolar, who had gathered near his residence here, that the Congress high command had asked him not to take even ‘1 per cent risk’ while choosing a constituency to contest the elections.

Siddaramaiah, who currently represents Badami segment of Bagalkote district in northern parts of the State, has repeatedly indicated that he may not contest from there, citing his inability to give more time for people and party workers of the constituency as the reason. Siddaramaiah, who has announced that 2023 Assembly polls will be his last, has made it clear that he would not contest from his former Chamundeshwari constituency in Mysuru. As the then sitting Chief Minister, he lost the 2018 polls in Chamundeshwari to JD(S) G T Deve Gowda by 36,042 votes.

He, however, won Badami, the other constituency from where he had contested the 2018 polls, and defeated B Sriramulu (BJP) by 1,696 votes.

Making his debut in the Assembly in 1983, Siddaramaiah had got elected from Chamundeshwari on a Lok Dal Party ticket. He has won five times from this constituency and tasted defeat thrice.

After neighbouring Varuna became a constituency in 2008 following delimitation, Siddaramaiah represented it till he vacated the seat for his son Yatindra (MLA) in the 2018 Assembly polls and went back to his old constituency of Camundeshwari. (PTI)